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Gordana

February 9, 2012 at 7:27 pmSpencer,Since I missed the nubmers I do need to acknowledge that I did miss the nubmers.Most of you guys have an amazing habit to lump things together and rush to conclusions without seeing the real PICTURE in your zeal of proving that you were right or smarter than others. Siri’s 2011 results and 2012 guidance is a new quality of business and a precursor of phenomenal performance in the coming years. This is something that you do not understand. Let us go back for a moment and look at what I predicted and what you predicted and WHAT is critical for the company. We also need to agree on one basic premise that very often smart guys tend to forget companies exist to MAKE MONEY rather than meet so called metrics. I hope you would agree that siri did make a great profit for the year? Siri generated approximately TEN TIMES PROFIT year over year at $427M in 2011 vs. $43M in 2010. Reported 2011 fcf was a double at $416M vs. $210M in 2010. My question for you is WHY YOU ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT THE METRIC THAT REALLY MATTERS – HIS MAJESTY PROFIT!!! Or you are an amazon-type lover where revenue comes at ANY COST and margins are at 1 or 2% of the revenue!!!Now let us compare the nubmers for 2011:Q4, 2011 Revenue – actual $784, my number over $800M, yours number $784 being virtually bull’s eye, mine -$17M miss. EBIDTA – actual $167M, my estimate $210-$220M, yours $180-$190, your miss $13M, mine $44M fcf – actual $192M, my estimate over $200M, yours $360-$375; my miss $9M, yours $24.5M. profit – actual 1 cent, my estimate 3 cents, yours – none.As you can see, I was the closest of the two of us to Mel’s most important and critical metric that he worships – fcf, where you missed almost $25M. This is the money that pays off debt, pays dividends or buys back shares.Neither do you want to talk with hope and praise about announced personalization nor on demand features. You claim that you care about siri’s future and innovation as a requirement for its healthy growth. Here is your growth, Mel showed it to you, and you are still unhappy!!!As to the 2012 guidance, I did much better in terms of what Mel announced. One number that I missed big was the sub guidance of 1.75M vs. Mel’s 1.3M. I do not believe that my expectations in terms of guidance were too bloated with the exception of subs. Reply

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